Kathmandu/New Delhi, Mar 6,2026: The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) appeared to be heading for a sweep in Nepal’s first elections since a Gen-Z revolt in September last year toppled the Communist-led coalition headed by Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli.
With two of four seats declared and leads in 101 constituencies out of 165 where direct elections are held, the newbie RSP party led by former Kathmandu Mayor Balendra ‘Balen’ Shah looks set to form the government. The Nepal Congress, often called the ‘Grand old party of Nepal’ has won one seat and is leading in 11 more seats.
“The two Communist parties – Nepali Communist Party led by Prachanda Oli’s CPN (UML) – which dominated the country for more than a decade are really fighting for the third spot with 12 and 10 leads as of now,” said Kuvera Chalise, Consulting Editor of Nepalkhabar.
“This victory in Nepal is really the net result of the anger and frustration of the younger generation because of the poor governance and lack of efforts by the old guard to create employment opportunities within Nepal even as rampant corruption and its fruits became more and more visible,” added Chalise, a well-known political analyst.
The momentum suggested that the RSP’s bell symbol had resonated across the country, from major urban centres to remote mountain districts and the plains of the Terai, turning the party’s signature blue colour into the dominant feature of the electoral map, analysts said.
Interestingly, the results in Nepal were just the opposite of Bangladesh’s. “It needs to be studied why Bangladesh rejected the parties born out of the students’ movement, while Nepal supported the new party RSP,” pointed out Pinak R Chakravarty, former Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs.
Balendra Shah had fought and is poised to win his seat in parliament from Oli in what was earlier the communist leader’s personal stronghold in the Terai region’s Jhapa-5 south-eastern Nepal. However, the charismatic Communist leader Prachanda, has also won his Rukum East seat, in northern Nepal, near the border with China.
The electoral victory by the new party RSP led by a youthful new leader, who has advocated a ‘Nepal First’ policy, marks a critical political moment for Nepal as also a question mark for powerful neighbours India and China, both of whom will have to negotiate ahead with the strategically-located Himalayan state, wedged between their borders.
While India has traditionally been an ally and has had strong relations with Nepal, China with its ideological linkages with the communist parties and its cheque book diplomacy has enjoyed considerable clout in Kathmandu.
“The students were bound to win given the pent up frustration of the youth and the demographic profile of Nepal. We have to see how our new party negotiates the way ahead,” said KC Sunil, President of Nepal India Chamber & Commerce I& Industry.
Nepal, one of the world’s poorest countries, struggles with the South Asian region’s lowest per capita income and an unemployment rate approaching 13 per cent, according to official estimates. The Himalayan nation has a fairly young population with the male median age at 22 years and with 34 per cent of population still aged below 14.
The economic hardship has been compounded by deep-seated corruption and a heavy reliance on remittances from a large segment of the population who have been forced to work abroad in search of opportunities.
The emerging results appeared to reflect a deep reservoir of public frustration with the three major old parties, which many voters accuse of failing for years to generate employment, deliver meaningful development, or act in the broader national interest. The outcome also seemed to echo lingering public anger over the handling of the student protests in September last year, an episode that intensified distrust toward the political establishment.
Voters are directly electing 165 members to the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Parliament. The remaining 110 seats in the 275-member body will be allocated through a proportional representation system under which political parties nominate lawmakers based on their share of the vote.
